By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Cyclone Dana will be taking birth anytime within next 24 hours. The depression system is moving northwest with a surface wind speed of around 50kmph. The minimum sea level pressure is measured at 1000hPa (Hecta Pascal). The sea level pressure shows the system’s intensification is slow.
Stay tuned for more Cyclone Dana Live Updates!
A glance at the satellite image shows broken, fragmented clouds around the low level cyclonic centre (LLCC). The LLCC is clearly stands exposed now. However, the process of formative banding of clouds has begun. The cloud top temperature has fallen to minus 100 deg C today. The super cooled cloud top temperature shows the high condensation process is on. (see the image below).
The national weather forecaster has released its latest track forecast for Cyclone Dana today. There seems no change in its track forecast post the formation of depression in east central Bay of Bengal today.
The IMD said, “Yesterday’s well marked low pressure area over Eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved westnorthwestwards, concentrated into a depression and lay centred at morning hours today (October 22) over the same region, about 730 km southeast of Paradip, 770 km south-southeast of Sagar Island (West Bengal) and 740 km south-southeast of Khepupara (Bangladesh).”
The IMD observation on the system shows the nearest distance to it is Odisha’s Paradip.
CYLONE DANA TRACK EXPLAINED
The moot point here is how IMD is assessing that the system is moving northwest, as shown in the main image. Will Cyclone Dana move in track predicted by IMD? Will it change course?
With the formation of the depression, it is now safer to predict its track. But the caveat is meteorologists never bet 100% on any track forecast. As the atmosphere is dynamic, a slight change in the steering environment of the cyclone may alter the forecasted track of any cyclone.
A study of the analysis released by US-based CIMSS on Cyclone Dana shows how the system is steered by the atmosphere's steering environment – the deep layer mean of winds. Now take a look at the weather charts on the steering environment of Cyclone Dana.
An analysis of image 1 shows the depression following the northwest track in the last 24 hrs. Now, co-relate the main image with the image above.
It is observed from the pattern of steering winds that the Cyclone Dana is following along with the clockwise flow around the high’s periphery. Now takea look at the image below.
A further scrutiny of the today’s steering environment indicates its likely track. The image above suggests a clockwise flow of ‘higher’ High periphery running over parts of Bihar, eastern UP, northern Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. The steering winds, thus, indicate the likely track of Cyclone Dana crossing the Odisha coasts close to Bhitarkanika National Park. The landfall point is likely to be 20.77 deg North latitude and 86.54 deg East longitude. The latitude and longitude of Bhitarkanika National Park is 20.72 N and 86.86 E.
