By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Year 2021, month of May. Very Severe Cyclonic storm Yaas took shape in the east central Bay of Bengal. The VSCS made landfall to the north of Dhamra port and south of Bahanga on May 26.
Fast Forward to year 2024. Cyclone Dana will take shape again in the east central Bay of Bengal in next 48 hrs (by Oct 23). The track forecast for cyclone Dana released by IMD today shows somewhat similarity with the track of that of VSCS Yaas.
As per IMD DG Mritunjaya Mahapatra, there is a possibility of Cyclone Dana intensifying into a very severe cyclone. In fact, IMD and NCMRWF’s NCUM-G models predict the system intensifying into a very severe cyclonic storm as it nears the Odisha coast on October 24. The land fall will be in the evening hours or night.
Cyclone Yaas had a gusting speed, as per IMD, of 140kmph. But JTWC estimated the top speed of Cyclone Yaas at 120kmph. The gusting speed of Cyclone Dana is estimated at 120 kmph, as of now.
But be it cyclone Yaas or Cyclone Dana, it is Bahitarkanika National Park, a Ramsar site with India’s second-largest mangrove forest, and the carbon sink of the State, has been in the eye of storm.
BHITARKANIKA NATIONAL PARK
The national park is known for its mangroves, migratory birds, turtles, estuarine crocodiles, and innumerable creeks. It is one of Odisha’s top biodiversity hotspots. This unique habitat consists of 62 mangrove species, 28 species of mammals, 280 species of birds, and 47 species of amphibians and reptiles. It also includes the largest population of saltwater crocodiles in India.
Since a large area of the national park falls under high flood risk zone, during Cyclone Yaas in 2021, coastal fishing villages in the Bhitarkanika National Park were severely affected by tidal floods caused by storm surges, resulting in largescale damage to properties.
Following are the villages in the coastal region that stare at high tidal floods due to Cyclone Dana.
- Govindpur
- Kanhupur
- Chinchri
- Gobardhanpur
- Barunei
Since extremely heavy rainfall in the range of 20-30 cm likely in the region of Bhitarkanika National Park, following villages may stare at high flash flood .
- Ramchandrapur
- Jaganathpur
- Kamalpur
- Subarnapur
- Paramanandapur
MANGROOVE LOSS
BNP has mangrove forests that not only offer habitat and refugia for breeding and spawning of fishes, but also helps in controlling coastal erosion, and also acting as sediment traps. These coastal nurseries face massive losses during cyclones like Yaas.
As per 2022 studies by Haldar and Bandyopadhyay, and Almaliki in 2023, Cycloned Yaas had resulted in increased mangrove destruction. Constant onslaught by cyclones like Fani et al has led to changes in coastal geomorphology, shoreline shifting, mangrove degradation, and saltwater intrusion in the region, the studies reported.
But as Cyclone Yaas made landfall close to Bhitarkanika National Park, it triggered massive mangrove forest diversity loss, mangrove region reduction, and floodwater intrusion, finds a study done by Mondal in 2022
1971 COMMITTEE RECOMMENDATIONS NOT IMPELMENTED
As per study reports, in 1971, Odisha government had appointed a committee to look into ways to reduce the loss of life and property due to cyclones. The then IMD DG P Koteswaram had headed the committee. The committee had given 59 recommendations like building embankments along vulnerable coastline and afforestation to a depth of 1km, to mitigate the ruinous effects of cyclones.
But the wreaking havoc by Cyclone Yaas in 2021 bared out the non-implementation of the mitigating measures suggested in the year 1971
The BOTTOMLINE is as VSCS Cyclone Dana has arrived on the horizon and the cyclone is predicted to make landfall close to the Bhitarkanika National Park, it needs to be seen how much it will be battered by the severe cyclonic system.
