Bhubaneswar: Battle for Delhi has been a do or die one for the two main arch rivals - Aam Admi Party (AAP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
A waterloo for any one of the two will create an existential crisis for the party.
The Arvind Kejriwal led AAP has stunned all pollsters in 2013, the year it made political debut in Delhi, by grabbing a whopping 29.5% vote share and winning 28 seats. BJP won 32 seats with a vote share of 32%.
The election was held under the extreme anti-incumbency wave against the then Shiela Dixit led Congress govt.
Buoyed by bumper show in Delhi, Kejriwal’s national ambitions took wings. He went on a mission mode across the country in 2014 LS elections held months after the Delhi Assembly election. Modi-led BJP won big handing a handsome defeat to Kejriwal-led AAP
The 2014 LS election results were out. Arvind Kejriwal’s national ambitions died a still birth. He heralded a door to door ‘APOLOGY’ campaign, promising Delhites that he will never leave Delhi and Delhi will remain his first priority.
Delhi witnessed elections after 2-years in 2015. Kejriwal scripted history.
AAP emerged on the horizon of Delhi like a bright Sun, wilted other parties to crumbs in assembly elections after elections since then.
However, election history of Delhi for the last decade has clearly shown how PM MODI has been the Man for Parliament elections and KEJRIWAL in the Assembly elections. .
A glance at the vote shares shows the following. This vote share drops a big hint
PARTIES | 2014 LS POLLS | 2015 DELHI POLLS | 2019 LS POLLS | 2020 DELHI POLLS | 2024 LS POLLS |
BJP | 46.6% | 32.3% | 56.9% | 38.7% | 54.7% |
AAP | 33.1% | 54.5% | 18.2% | 55% | 24.3% |
CONG | 15.2% | 9.7% | 22.6% | 4.3% | 19% (INDI BLOC – 43%) |
A glance at the above vote share number shows the following.
- Nearly 17% AAP voters in Delhi have no inhibition in voting BJP
- Nearly 18% Congress voters keep switching over to AAP in Assembly elections.
- The LS poll vote share shows BJP, in the last 10-years, have increased its acceptability among more than half of the electorate.
- And a significant chunk was seen voting for AAP in Assembly elections
THE X REASON
A detailed glance at the Delhi elections throws the following poll facts.
- Under AAP wave in 2015, the number of close contest seats in Delhi was only 12 from 63 constituencies in 2013.
- In the 2020 elections, the count of closely fought constituencies rose to 18, despite a tsunami of AAP.
- Of the 18 close-contest assembly seats, BJP won on 4, rest was won by AAP.
2025 ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS - THE BIG REASON
The voter turnout in Delhi elections have been estimated at around 60.44%, says the latest ECI data.
A study of the voter turnout has discovered the following trend.
- Delhi voters vote with enthusiasm when they bring change.
- Delhi 1993 first Assembly elections saw 61.75% voter turnout.
- In 1998, when BJP lost, disappointed over BJP in the last 5-years, its voter didn’t turn up to vote, turnout dipped to 48.99%
- In 2003, some BJP voter came to voting booths, and together with first 5-years of Shiela Dixit govt brought voters to booth, turnout was up at 53.4%
- 2008 saw emergence of Mayawati among Delhi’s SC voter constituencies, Dalit voters came out in a big way. Mayawati grabbed over 5% vote share. Turnout increased to 57.6%
- On the backdrop of extreme anti-incumbency against Cong, voters came out in a big way to vote AAP and the turnout increased to 66% in 2013
- In 2015, on the backdrop of AAP tsunami, voter turnout was up at 67.5%.
- In 2020, when AAP recorded a fall in its vote share, the turnout saw a drop to 62.82%, but BJP vote share was up then.
- In 2024, the voter turnout has dipped to a decade low of 60.44%
LOW VOTER TURNOUT – AAP-DA FOR KEJRIWAL?
An analysis of the past Delhi elections hints big.
The decade low voter turnout indicates disenchanted AAP voters have remained indoor. A drop of 7.5% assumes big.
The trend of 2020 Delhi Assembly elections show, dipping turnout means slicing of AAP vote share. A drop in turnout in Delhi has always impacted the ruling party.
This trend hints that Arvind Kejriwal led AAP is in danger zone of losing power in the Delhi Assembly polls.
In the backdrop, the prediction by almost all pollsters assumes big. All Delhi exit polls have predicted an edge for BJP and drubbing for AAP., though one of the leading poll forecaster Axis My India will be releasing its survey results on Thursday evening.
