By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Will the Navratri this year in Odisha going to be cyclone free? The national weather agency IMD’s weather outlook indicate formation of a Low Pressure Area during the early days of the second week of October. Other reputed weather forecasters too have made a prediction about formation of cyclonic ciruclation on and around October 6/7.
A look at the IMD –GFS model shows a cyclonic circulation over West Bengal and adjoining areas on and around October 5. IMD release says a low pressure area may form over Gangetic West Bengal and neighbourhood on and around October 5.
This weather development may see rainfall over the north-coastal districts in the State on October 4, 5,6 and 7.
The model forecasts of ECMWF also predicts formation of a low pressure are over West Bengal and Bangladesh, which may bring rainfall on and around October 8,9,10 and 11 over Gangetic West Bengal and some northcoastal Odisha districts
The NCEP GFS model, however, suggests formation of a cyclonic circulation close to Odisha coast on and around October 11. But, this development will bring light rainfall over some places in the coastal districts of the State.
However, the main observations made by almost all weather models don’t see any significant weather development likely till October 10, which may result in convective activities or say copious rainfall over whole of the places in the State.
Overall, it seems the skyline horizon over Odisha may not witness the rise of hard downpouring clouds in the State till October 10, even as experience of rainfall at some places in the State cannot be ruled out
Though the Navaratri festival starts from October 3, the Durga Puja in Odisha will begin from October 10 and continue till October13.
So when the Durga Puja festivities gain momentum in the State, will any new weather development going to take place? There seems no likely formation of Low pressure Area in Bay of Bengal till October 11.
Almost all models (ECMWF, NCMRWF, IMD, INCOIS) don’t see development of any weather system over Bay of Bengal till October 10. The timeline, therefore, suggests no cyclone genesis during the Durga Puja in Odisha this year.
Since this is the month of October, the Bay of Bengal needs to be on the watch list. In fact, most cyclones in Bay of Bengal take shape from the second week of October. WILL Bay of Bengal repeat the story this time around again?
CYCLONE GENESIS IN OCTOBER?
A look at NCUM Global model of NCMRWF hints at some churning. The model shows weaker easterlies over south Bay of Bengal and at the same relatively stronger westerlies over the same region. The south Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman seas are predicted to have high tropical cyclone heat potential of more than 100kjcm2 during the period. And the sea surface temperature will remain at around 30-32 deg C.
The ECMWF model indicates likely cyclone genesis over south west bay of Bengal and adjoin Andaman seas after October 11.
The NCEP GFS model stretched the NCUM Global model forecast further. It predicts strong westerlies over Andaman seas and weak easterlies over north and central Bay of Bengal. The model, therefore, sees formation of a Low Pressure Area over the Andaman seas during the end of second week. This development, if it happens, may hold the risk of cyclone genesis in the Bay of Bengal.
