By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: IMD has made it official. The tropical weather outlook report of the national weather forecaster released today predicts formation of depression in next 96-120 hrs, i.e by October 12. This Dussehra Kerala may record heavy to very heavy rainfall.
“Under the influence of an upper cyclonic circulation formed over Lakshwadweep and adjoining Arabian Sea on October 8, a low pressure area is formed over Lakshadweep and adjoining southeast and east central Arabian Sea at 8:30 am today (October 9). The LPA will track northwest wards and intensify into a depression over central Arabian Sea in next 3-4 days,” says IMD tropical outlook report.
The report added that another cyclonic circulation is lying over Sri Lanka and its neighbourhood.
CYCLONE GENESIS IN ARABIAN SEA
The IMD analysis has the following takeaways.
- MJO is currently weak. It may gain strength from Oct 12 onwards.
- Beginning of convective activities will take time
- NCICS model guidance suggests easterly wind over south and adjoining central Bay of Bengal during Oct 4 -10. Therefore, no cyclone genesis in Bay of Bengal.
- It predicts westerly wind anomaly along with a lower easterly wind anomaly over south and central Arbian sea .
- Thus, the indication is the atmosphere is favourable for the development of low pressure area/depression in the ensuing week over the Arabian sea.
WILL IT BECOME CYCLONE?
While the model forecast of NCMRWF indicates the depression intensifying into a cyclone over the Arabian Sea by October 14, IMD prediction has been that the low pressure area formed today may intensify into depression.
The IMD GFS model prediction doesn’t see intensification of the system beyond depression or deep depression stage.
However, the IMD forecasts show that the cyclonic circulation of over Sri Lanka and its neighbourhood may intensify into a low pressure area and tracks westwards to emerge in ArabianSea. The system may then intensify into another depression in Arabian Sea on and around October 15. The system may intensify further to deep depression and track towards Yemen by around Oct 19.
The NCEP GFS and ECMWF seem to be in agreement with IMD GFS and NCMRWF’s NCUM.
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO INDIA?
Under the influence of the low pressure area, most of the places in Kerala like Kannur, Kozhikode, Kochi and the entire coast belt will be recording heavy rainfall on and around October 13/14.
Many places in coastal Karanataka like Udupi et al and places like Shimoga, Chitradurga, etc will also be witnessing rainfall in the range of 20 mm on October 12.
The IMD forecast till Oct 19 shows many places in Karnataka and Kerala receiving rainfall in the range of 2cm on October 18/19.
