By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Dry, but not fair, weather will rule roost over Odisha during the next 10 days. Citizens may find the weather irriating during the Durga Puja days. However, the good news is weather indicators hint at withdrawal of the monsoon from the State on and around October 18.
As per the model forecast of NCMRWF and IMD-GFS, an anticyclone will be developing over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha on and around October 17/18. The anticyclone development may herald fair weather in Odisha and signals withdrawal of monsoon from the State. The moisture in atmosphere will drop to a low. Citizens can breathe dry and cool air.
MONSOON WITHDRAWAL FROM ODISHA OVER YEARS
The normal date of monsoon withdrawal in Odisha has been October 15. The withdrawal by Oct 18 is considered as normal withdrawal. Here is a look at withdrawal dates of Monsoon during the last decade.
- 2014: October 17
- 2015: October 16
- 2016: October 16
- 2017: October 17
- 2018: October 5
- 2019: October 15
- 2020: October 28
- 2021: October 12
- 2022: October 21
- 2023: October 14/16
The above date line shows, though, the new normal date of monsoon withdrawal from the State is Oct 15. In the last 10-years, except in the years 2018 and 2021, the withdrawal date from the State had been around Oct 16/17. The most delayed withdrawal was witnessed in 2020, followed by 2022. This year it may withdraw on and around Oct 18.
ANDAMAN SEAS ON WATCHOUT
A look at the weather models indicate that easterlies dominating over the Bay of Bengal and Andaman seas till October 19. The model forecast rules out gushing of strong westerlies into the Bay of Bengal till the end of next week.
However, as the MJO is going to remain active in Bay of Bengal from the next week, and the NCICS prediction indicates low formation over adjoining South China Sea in the last week of October, when the MJO would be active over south Bay of Bengal and Andaman seas and South China Sea. So, last week of October is watch out time for Odisha.
