By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Forty eight hours after formation of cyclonic circulation, and when the Low Pressure Area has formed today morning, the national weather forecast agency IMD has issued a track forecast of the low pressure area formed today. The track throws a big twist.
The cone of uncertainty of the low pressure area when seen in tandem with the IMD GFS model track, together they brings a big twist on the possible track of Cyclone Dana. On the formation of low pressure area day, the IMD model data predicts the system taking a north-northeast track when it reaches northwest Bay of Bengal.
NOTE: View the main image. The image's brown line tracks the Low Pressure Area track released by IMD, the blue line is not a part of the IMD's cone of uncertainity map. But is based on the IMD-GFS model track )
An analysis of the IMD GFS model data reveals how the sub tropical jet passing over Bangladesh will steer the very severe cyclonic storm Dana towards the north northeast direction. And the VSCS Dana may make landfall in Bangladesh on Oct 24 morning hours.
The latest twist made by IMD GFS model stood in sharp contrast to the prediction it made on October 20. (View the image below)
WEATHER CONDITIONS OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
The movement of the system has been very slow. It has moved northwest direction in the last 24 hours. The wind speed is static at 37kmph. A change has been witnessed in the condition of the low pressure area this morning. On Oct 20, the wind shear to its west and east are favourable to neutral, but unfavourable to its south and north.
On Oct 21, morning hours, though, the system is in a favourable wind shear of around 10knots, a favourable wind shear lies only to east of the system. The wind shear to its west, north and south remains unfavourable.
The above weather observation shows the system will intensify at the east central Bay of Bengal only. The wind shear in the west Bay of Bengal is unfavourable at present.
The system’s intensification status can be gauged from the super cooled cloud top temperature; the top cloud system temperature is currently measured at minus 70 deg C. (view the image above)
IMD LATEST RAINFALL FORECAST
Based on the ocean data of morning hours of October 21, the IMD model has predicted the following wind and rainfall over Odisha , West Bengal. As IMD model sees the cyclone Dana tracking the Bangladesh way, it has predicted minimal impact on Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh.
- Bhubaneswar will record 5mm rain on Oct 25
- Puri may record 3mm rain on Oct 25.
- Gopalpur may record 3mm rain on Oct 28.
- Balasore may record below 5mm rain on Oct 25.
- Chandbali may record rainfall in the range of 1cm.
- Paradip may record rainfall in the range of 3cm on Oct 25.
- Bhadrak may see rainfall in the range of 2cm on Oct 25.
- Medinipur, West Bengal may see rainfall in the range of 18cm on Oct 25.
BANGLADESH RAINFALL
The latest model run of IMD predicts extremely heavy rainfall in Bangladesh in the range of 200-300mm on October 24/25
