By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: The national weather forecaster IMD has released its official forecast track for Cyclone Dana. Soon after the formation of the low pressure area, the IMD today released a new cone of uncertainty map predicting the possible track of severe Cyclone Dana.
A glance at the Cyclone Dana track map shows severe cyclonic storm Cyclone Dana will make landfall around Chandbali in Bhadrak district. The Bhitarkanika National Park may bear the primary brunt of the Cyclone Dana, as IMD has indicated the storm hitting the Odisha coast with a packing speed of 120kmph. (see the main image)
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The IMD cone of uncertainty map suggest heavy to very heavy rainfall in the coastal Odisha districts like Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapada, Balasore on Oct 24/25. The track indicates heavy rainfall over the districts in the western and northern Odisha on October 26 and 27.
However, the official IMD release said the severe cyclonic system Cyclone Dana will make landfall between Puri (Odisha) and Sagar Islands (West Bengal) on October 24. The large area forecast is made today as the IMD GFS model is showing the cyclonic system recurving towards West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts.
However, IMD multi modal ensemble (MME) shows the severe Cyclone Dana making landfall over the northern coast of Odisha (around Chandbali- Bhitarkanika National Park).
INDIAN MODEL FORECASTS
Three Indian models have made their forecast with regard to the landfall of severe Cyclone Dana. The details are given below.
The NCUM- G model of NCMRWF (the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) has predicted the landfall between Jagatsinghpur and Chandbali, Bhadrak. The image is given below.
Another Indian ace ocean observation centre, the INCOIS, has predicted the severe cyclonic system Cyclone Dana making landfall between Jagatsinghpur and Chandbali. See the image below.
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS
The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) has predicted the sever cyclonic system Cyclone Dana making landfall on October 24 between jagatsinghpur and Chandbali (precisely at 20.21 deg North and 86.48 deg East) (see the image below). The top forecaster claims with 100% possibility.
Another popular model NOAA GFS of United States still bets on Cyclone Dana making landfall between West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts (around Sagar islands)
The Australian Weather Department model ACCESS has predicted the landfall place of Cyclone Dana as north coast of Odisha (between Jagatsinghpur and Chandbali. (see the image below).
The BOTTOMLINE is both IMD GFS and NOOA GFS are predicting th esevere cyclonic system Cyclone Dana taking a hit at West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts, but the IMD MME forecast is based on the multi models like INCOIS, NCUM-G, ECMWF. All of which shows tha landfall place as around Chandbali in Odisha.
