By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Even as the 2024 Monsoon withdrawal line passes through Firozpur (Punjab), Sirsa (Haryana), Churu, Ajmer, Mount Abu, Deesa of Rajastahn, Surendranagar and Junagarh of Gujarat , the Monsoon is still active over other parts of the country.
As seen in the main image a cyclonic circulation is still persisting over central parts of India, which is bringing heavy rains in Maharashtara, Gujarat etc. The cyclonic circulation will be move in northwest direction in next 24 hours.
As a consequence, coastal Maharashtra, Gujarat, and adjoining places of Madhya Pradesh will record heavy rainfall in the coming 24-48 hrs. Heavy rainfall is likely on September 27 and 28.
On September 29, Madhya Pradesh and eastern Uttar Pradesh may record moderate to heavy rainfall, suggest the model data of National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF).
NO RAINS IN ODISHA
The IMD Bhubaneswar has recorded 26.3 mm rainfall in the Capital City Bhubaneswar in the last 9 hours. The weather model prediction shows no rain in Odisha from Sept 28 –Oct 1. Models indicate flow of dry wind to the State from the north/northwest. This will result in fall of humidity level in the State.
MONSOON WITHDRAWAL
The model data of all reputed weather forecasters – National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF), IMD –GFS, NCEP-GFS, ECMWF – indicate continuation of the withdrawal of monsoon from India.
The models indicate withdrawal of Monsoon 2024 from Delhi by October 1, though the normal withdrawal date for Delhi has been September 25. The withdrawal date this year is considered normal as there is no wide variation. The monsoon withdrawal from over the central parts of the India will likely to take place by Oct 3.
If the pace of monsoon withdrawal is taken into consideration, the withdrawal of Monsoon from over Odisha may be by Oct 12, as against the normal date of October 15.
