Bhubaneswar: The year’s last low pressure area is now over the southwest Bay of Bengal. Due to unfavourable wind shear to its northwest and north, the system will unlikely be moving northwest towards north Andhra Pradesh coast.
Moreover, as the system is now in favourable zone, it’s weakening in subsequent 24 hrs seems likely when it enters the neutral wind shear prevailing to its west.
The above weather conditions show the system taking a west track towards north Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh coasts.
As a consequence, south Andhra Pradesh is going to bear the brunt of the rainfall for the coming next 72 hours.
ANDHRA PRADESH IMPACT
As per IMD-GFS and NOAA-NCEP GFS, under the influence of the system, rainfall in the range of 2-4cm will lash the southern Andhra Pradesh districts like Tirupati, Nellore and at some places in Ongole district.
Some places in Nellore district may record rainfall upto 4cm on December 27..
TAMIL NADU IMPACT
The model forecast suggests rainfall in the range of 1-2cm over the State of Tamil Nadu on December 26 and 27.
ODISHA IMPACT
Under the influence of the last low pressure of the year, the State seems unlikely to witness heavy rainfall during the period December 24 to Dec 27.
Though the national weather forecaster has predicted heavy rainfall (Over 7cm) at one or two places in Odisha, model forecasts of IMD and NCEP GFS suggest no heavy rainfall at any places in the State.
Forecast data shows the following.
- Gajapati may record rainfall of 20mm on Dec 25.
- From Koraput to Paradip, rainfall may be in the range of 3-4mm.
- BHUBANESWAR – may record 3mm rain on Dec 25 (means from early morning hrs to mid day)
- CUTTACK – may also record below 1mmn rain on Dec 25 (early morning hrs)
- BERHAMPUR/GOPLAPUR – 7 -10mm in midnight to early morning hrs of Dec 25.
- Places in districts in western Odisha like Kalahandi may record 2-3mm rainfall
However, the State may see cloudy skies till December 26, especially over the coastal areas.
WESTERN DISTURBANCE FROM DEC 26
As per model forecasts by IMD, NCEP, a western disturbance will impact up to central India during the period of Dec 27 to Dec 29.
The IMD forecast predicts likely interaction of the western disturbance with moist laden easterly winds from Bay of Bengal prevailing over central India, bringing rainfall in the range of 5mm to 20mm over Delhi, eastern parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, north and eastern Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and parts of western Odisha between Dec 27 and 29.
ODISHA IMPACT
IMD model forecast suggests very light rainfall of below 2mm in the districts of Nuapada, Bargarh, Jharsuguda, Sambalpur and Sundargarh on Dec 29.
Light cloudy skies may prevail over BHUBANESAR and CUTTACK on Dec 29/30.
COLD WAVE
Model forecasts suggest no prevalence of cold wave over the State of Odisha till the last day of year 2024. While the maximum temperature over western Odisha will rise to 30 deg C from Dec 27 onwards, the minimum temperature will rise above 18 deg C from Dec 25 onwards.
The minimum temperature in BHUBANESWAR and CUTTACK will stay at around 18-20 deg C till the last day of YEAR 2024.
