By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Cyclonic storm Dana floating high in the Bay of Bengal. Tracking the northwest, the deep steering environment is steering Cyclone Dana towards Bhitarkanika National Park. As the system is heading towards Odisha, the time is apt to zoom on the structure of Cyclone Dana. The flaring outer rings of light clouds of Cyclone Dana seen over Odisha skies.
The study of the cyclonic system shows strongest convective clouds to the south of Cyclone Dana’s centre. The warning here is extremely heavy rain is very likely to the south of landfall place of Cyclone Dana.
LENS ON CYCLONE DANA
The multispectral satellite imagery shows the centre still exposed, albeit partially. The convective banding is still fragmented. Tight banding will be soon over and cover the Centre in next 20 hours. Eye of Cyclone Dana may develop in next 20 hours. Now the wind is high (55kmph) to the north of the system. The system is in a favourable atmosphere. It is in an area of low to moderate wind shear. The vertical wind shear to the north and south is unfavourable to the system. The wind shear is favourable to neutral to it west and east.
The cloud banding shows strongest and largest convective cloud bands to the south of the system, while to the north of the system’s center, the size of the strongest convective clouds is comparatively quite smaller. The positioning of cloud bands, therefore, suggests pounding rain on places that lie to the north of the Cyclone Dana’s centre (eye).
CYCLONE DANA LANDFALL PLACE LATEST
With the cyclonic system coming into existence, a look at the steering environment of Cyclone Dana spells out the clear track it will follow to make landfall. The deep layer mean suggests the system tracking along the clockwise flow around the ‘High’ periphery. The system after landfall may weaken and turn towards south bringing rain over places in western and southern Odisha. See the image illustration below.
PARADEEP, KENDRAPADA WILL BEAR CYLONE DANA BRUNT
A glance at the cloud positioning of Cyclone Dana, therefore, clearly suggests extremely heavy rainfall over Paradip and adjoining places of Kendrapada when Cyclone Dana will make landfall to the north of Bhitarkanika National Park and south of Dhamra.
As per IMD forecast, Paradip may record over 20 cm rains on the morning hours of October 25, when Cyclone Dana will be making landfall in Odisha coasts. Based on the cloud positiong, extremely heavy rain is very likely to pound Rajanagar, Mahakalpada, Pattamundai blocks in Kendrapada and Kujang and Ersama block in Jagatsinghpur district. In Bhadrak, heavy rain will pound the blocks of Chandbali, Tihidi and Dhamnagar.
RAIN IN ODISHA TILL OCT 27
As the cyclonic system Dana will get weaken after landfall, the system, as per current predictions, will become a low pressure area over north Odisha, adjoining Jharkhand and move south wards traversing over the state of Odisha. As a consequence, the system will be bringing rain to whole of coastal belt, in the districts like Kandhamal, Kalahandi, Balangir, koraput, Malkangiri and Rayagada on Oct 26 and Oct 27
Odisha will witness dry atmosphere and clear sky from October 29 onwards.
