By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Weather observations at the morning hours today shows persistence of the low pressure cell over the north Andaman seas. The weather is partly cloudy over the Andaman Sea and Southeast Bay and Eastcentral Bay of Bengal and cloudy elsewhere over the Bay of Bengal.
Stay Connected for Latest Updates on Cyclone ‘Dana’
The observations taken this morning shows the invest area has a wind speed of 20 knots or over 37 kmph. It is in a area of favourable wind shear. The wind shear to its west and east are favourable to neutral, but unfavourable to its south and north. Tracking northwest the system will move to east central Bay of Bengal in next 48 hours.
In the next 24 hours (i.e on Oct 23), the system tracking west will move over to the central Bay of Bengal. The system will intensify into a depression on October 23. Tracking northwest, the system is likely to make landfall in Odisha during morning hours on October 25.
INDIAN MODELS UNANIMOUS ON LANDFALL
Analysis of the three Indian models – IMD-GFS, NCMRWF’s NCUM-G and INCOIS – brings to fore the following inferences.
* IMD-GFS predict the system intensifying into a severe cyclonic storm by Oct 24.
* The system will track northwest under the influence of upper level easterly wind towards Odisha.
* The subtropical jet (westerly) will be weak over Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal.
* The IMD model predicts the system making landfall between Gopalpur and Jagatsinghpur, precisely around Gopalpur on morning hours of October 25.
* The model of premier ocean observatory centre of the country INCOIS model is in agreement with IMD-GFS.
* The INCOIS model predicts the system making land around Gopalpur
* The NCMRWF’s NCUM-G model predicts the system making landfall around Jagatsighpur. The model is predicting the system intensify into a severe cyclone.
* Therefore, the common inference of the Indian model forecast has been Odisha will be bearing the brunt of upcoming severe cyclone.
GLOBAL MODELS ON CYLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL
Except the US based models, all other weather models – ECMWF, JMA, ACCESS – predict the system making landfall on Odisha coasts. The US –based NOAA –GFS still holds its prediction of a very severe cyclone making landfall in West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts on Oct 25.
* The ECMWF is over 80% confident of the severe cyclone making landfall in Odisha between Gopalpur and Puri on October 25.
* The ACCESS model is pretty confident of the severe cyclone making landfall over Odisha around Puri-Jagasinghpur.
* JMA prediction also shows landfall over Odisha.
IMD RAINFALL FORECAST LATEST
* IMD latest model forecast indicates landfall around Gopalpur.
* The wind speed predicted at Goplapur over 80-100 kmph
* 38 cm rain predicted
* Puri will record over 28cm rain on Oct 25.
* The wind speed predicted is around 80kmph.
* Models like ECMWF also predict high wind and very heavy rain between Gopalpur and Puri on Oct 24/25.
IMD RAINFALL FORECAST LATEST
* IMD latest model forecast indicates landfall around Gopalpur.
* The wind speed predicted at Goplapur over 80-100 kmph
* 38 cm rain predicted
* Puri will record over 28cm rain on Oct 25.
* The wind speed predicted is around 80kmph.
Models like ECMWF also predict high wind and very heavy rain between Gopalpur and Puri on Oct 24/25.
