Bhubaneswar: The winter solstice is over in December. Sun god has hence started travelling towards north hemisphere. As the country is entering into the mid January, and Makar Sankranti and Pongal fest dedicated to Sun God is ushering in, the nip in the air days are seemingly numbered now.
In the above context, when the world weather is under the influence of La Nina, and as the Apex Climate Centre forecast shows La Niña conditions are most probable (60%) for January — March 2025, with a shift to ENSO-neutral conditions expected to be more probable for the remaining forecast periods (April to June), how the Summer 2025 will pan out for India and Odisha?
Moreover, will Monsoon 2025 will make debut over Kerala and Odisha on time, as the El Nino Southern Oscillation is predicted to be a neutral ENSO from the beginning of summer 2025?
SUMMER 2025 FORECAST FOR INDIA, ODISHA
The Asia Pacific Climate Centre’s Multi Modal Ensemble (MME) probability outlook on Summer 2025 in India has predicted a hotter summer this year.
The APCC predicts India may record above normal summer this year.
A glance at the outlook released by the APPC shows the following.
- The whole of the country, except Tamil Nadu, will record above normal summer this year.
- Tamil Nadu may record near normal summer
- Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana will witness above normal summer and will see more hotter days in May
- In April, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and coastal Odisha are predicted to record more hotter days, though the temperature in Rest of India will remain above normal.
- Temperatures will pick up from March onwards in the country.
- Coastal Odisha may record more hotter days in March, along with states like Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
- Rainfall activities will swing into deficit zone in western India, north and eastern India, including Odisha, during the period Feb – April 2025.
MONSOON 2025 ONSET LIKELY INTIME
If the Apec Climate centre’s MME probability forecast is anything to go by, with neutral ENSO condition remaining in force till Jun 2025, the monsoon 2025 may make a timely onset over Kerala.
As per the APCC forecast, Kerala may witness good pre-monsoon rainfall from the beginning of the month. The MME forecast hints at Monsoon making onset in May last week, and Kerala is predicted to receive above normal rainfall in the month of May.
The Forecast also predicts above normal rainfall in May in parts of Central India, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
As far as Monsoon onset over Odisha is concerned, though the MME forecast ahs not predicted any date for the State, it shows State will see Monsoon onset across the State in the month of June, with June recording above normal rainfall in the State.
WILL MAY 2025 SEE CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL?
Though Cyclone genesis is unlikely to forecast from such a longer time frame, what needs to be borne in mind that with the outlook for Sea Surface temperature (SST) over Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea remaining hotter than ever, which doesn’t show any good portends.
More so, the kick start of rain over Arabian sea and bay of Bengal in May 2025 hints at the likely active Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Active MJO and above normal SST are the two conditions that may roll out good chances of cyclone genesis in May.
