Bhubaneswar: The US Elections 2024 has been historic for two reasons. First, former President Donald Trump is in the poll ring canvassing big and aiming to accomplish an electoral feat that has only been achieved once (by Grover Cleveland in 1892 US elections) in US history – regaining the White House after previously losing re-election.
Secondly, President Joe Biden jumped out of the poll ring by handing over the gloves to Vice President Kamala Harris. Though, this is not the first time a sitting president has withdrawn from a re-election campaign (President Lyndon Johnson (Democrat Party) did so in 1968). However, it is the first after 56 years.
In the moment of history repeating itself and when the US will vote for its next President on November 5, who – Republican Candidate and former Prez Donald Trump or Democrat Candidate VP Kamala Harris – will don the ‘historic’ crown?
ISSUES THIS PREZ ELECTION
A survey done by prominent organization Phew Research finds economy and inflation securing the topmost on voters’ minds as they step out to choose the next president of USA. The survey finds about eight-in-ten registered voters (81%) say the economy will be very important to their vote in the 2024 presidential election.
As per the survey, the US voters on Nov 5 will also be going to vote on some other following important issues.
- Immigration: About six-in-ten voters (61%) today say immigration is very important to their vote – a 9 percentage point increase from the 2020 presidential election and 13 points higher than during the 2022 congressional elections
- Abortion: The survey finds this a big election issue in 2024 for 51% of voters vis-à-vis 40% in 2022.
ISSUES OF TRUMP VOTERS
Among Trump supporters, the economy (93%), immigration (82%) and violent crime (76%) are the leading issues. Climate change and racial inequality matters for 11% and 18% of trump voters , respectively.
ISSUES OF HARRIS VOTERS
The voters who are rooting for Kamala Harris, issues such as health care (76%) and Supreme Court appointments (73%) are of top importance. Large majorities also cite the economy (68%) and abortion (67%) as very important to their vote in the election.
WHO HAS THE EDGE?
The poll survey done by prestigious and 2nd most trusted news organization in USA – ABC News – has mapped out on who may become the next President of USA on Jan 20, 2025.
A look at the poll tracker of ABC news hints at the following interesting trend.
- July 24, when Harris was declared leader, she had a slender lead of 0.9% over Donald Trump.
- By Aug 24, Harris widened the lead to 4%. 47% were in favour of Kamala Harris as against 43% for Donald Trump.
- Exactly two months after (Sept 25), Kamala Harris voter support upped to 48%. Trump too gathered support as 45% were in his favour
- On November 2, Kamala Harris has support of 47.9%
- On the other hand support for former prez Donald Trump gone up to capture a popular vote share to 46.9%.
- The latest poll survey finds fall in support for Kamla Harris and a continuous rise in Donald Trump popular vote share.
SWING STATES HOLD THE KEY
The USA has eight swing states that hold the key to win the Prez race. The details given below.
ARIZONA: This key state has 11 electoral votes. It was Republican stronghold from 1952 to 2016. Only Democrat President Bill Clinton won this key state in 1996. Shifting demographis amid rapid population growth skewed the support matrix for the Republicans. Joe Biden won the State in 2020. But survey suggests Trump leading over Harris by 4%.
GEORGIA: Another swing state has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College. This was also another longtime Republican State. Biden in 2020 beat Trump by 11,779 votes out of nearly 5 million cast (49.47% to 49.24%). The last Democratic nominee to win Georgia was Bill Clinton in 1992. The 2022 midterm elections showed Republicans are still competitive in the state. So, Trump has an edge here
MICHIGAN: This is another key decider with 15 electoral votes. Democrats have been wining the state since 1992. Trump won it in 2016 and Biden won it back in 2020. In 2022, Democrats won majority seats in congressional elections. So, Harris has an edge here.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Has only 4 electoral votes. Had voted the Republican since 2000. This state swung to Biden in 2020. Thereby, it turned a swing state.
NEVADA: has 6 electoral votes. Republicans have not flipped the state in the last four presidential cycles.. Trump lost Nevada in 2016 and 2020 by less than 3 percentage points. Will it revert back to Republicans after two consecutive Democrat tilt?
NORTH CAROLINA: has 16 electoral votes. Barak Obama swung it for the Democrats in 2008 but lost in 2012. It has been a Republican stronghold.
PENNYSYLVANIA: Biggest swing state with 19 electoral votes. A Democrat stronghold. But Trump breached the Democrat citadel in 2016, though Biden won it back in 2020. Reports suggest in voter registration numbers, Democrat supporters are 5 lakh more than Republicans. ABC news poll survey shows Trump leading narrowly over Harris.
WISCONSIN: Another key decider state with 10 electoral votes. The State tossed win for both parties, In 2016, Trump won and in 2020, Biden by 1% margin. Reports suggest Democrats gaining ground. The win of a left leaning candidate in a high profile judicial elections hint at some churning on the ground, reports highlighted.
The BOTTOMLINE is of the 8 key swing states in USA elections, Trump holds an edge in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, whereas Harris seems strong in Michigan. The other 4 holds the key, where both have chances to turn away towards them, in crowning Trump or Harris.
