Bhubaneswar: The national weather forecaster Indian Meteorological Department has announced formation of well marked low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and and adjoining east equatorial Indian Ocean.
The IMD predicted the system moving west-northwest ward and intensifying into a depression over the central parts of south Bay of Bengal by around Nov 25. The system in the next 48 hrs would move towards the Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts.
WILL SYSTEM INTENSIFY TO CYCLONE?
A study of the models of national and international weather forecasters have resulted into following inferences.
- IMD GFS model hints at the system intensifying into a cyclonic storm with a wind speed of around 70kmph and crossing between Puduchhery and Chennai
- INCOIS predicts a deep depression crossing at around the Puduchhery coast on November 30.
- NCUM-G model also hints at the system intensifying into a just cyclonic storm with wind speed of around 70-80kmph and crossing the coasts between Karaikal and Puduchhery on Nov 30
- ECMWF predicts intensification of the system into deep depression or just cyclonic storm and make landfall on Dec 1 between Puducherry and Chennai.
- NOAA NCEP predicts intensification of the system into a cyclone. But the twist its prediction added today is the system will track northeast towards Myanmar (most outlier prediction)
An analysis of the above inferences leads to the conclusion that a deep depression is most likely to form over southwest Bay of Bengal, close to Tamil Nadu coasts on Nov 29-30. The system may also intensify into a just cyclonic storm and cross at around Puduchhery on Nov 30/Dec1. The system will bring heavy rain in the range of 64 cm over coastal Tamil Nadu on Nov 29. The coastal Tamil Nadu will be receiving heavy rainfall till Dec 3.
ANDHRA PRADESH RAIN
All models are unanimous at heavy rains lashing the southern Andhra Pradesh from Nov 29 onwards. Rainfall activities will continue till December 3. The southern districts adjacent to coastal Tamil Nadu will record rainfall in the range of 16 cm.
ODISHA CHILLY – RAIN
Almost all models are unanimous on untimely rain hitting parts of south Odisha and coastal districts up to Jagatsinghpur. But in Odisha the rainfall will be in the range of 2 cm. The State of Odisha will record rain on Nov 29 and Dec 1.
As per IMD model, Odisha Capital Bhubaneswar will be recording 2mm rainfall on Nov 29,, even as cloudy sky to prevail over the Capital city from November 27.
As a consequence, the maximum temperature will take a downhill journey. The mercury may drop to as low as 20 deg C on November 27 and 28. And the minimum temperature will be hovering at around 17 deg C. The twin cities of Bhuabneswar and Cuttack may experience chilly days from Nov 27.
A look at the southern and south coast districts shows that maximum temperature in Koraput may drop to 16 deg C, whereas in Berhampur, the mercury will drop to 24 deg C infusing chilly conditions across the south and coastal Odisha.
ODISHA WINTER
Owing to the cyclonic system in the Bay of Bengal, minimum temperature across the State of Odisha will post a rise from Nov 30. The Minimum temperature is predicted to rise by 2 deg C in western and central Odisha.
But cold wave to return with a bang from December 4 with the mercury plummenting sharply to below 10 deg C in western and central parts of Odisha.
