Bhubaneswar: This November is exhibiting a new normal trend. The minimum temperature this month has been conspicuously above normal by as many as 5-6 degree C in the central India region; whereas it is 3-5 deg C above normal in states ranging from Punjab , Uttar Pradesh to north interior Karnataka, though some places (western and southwestern) in Odisha are having minimum temperature 2-3 deg C below normal.
A glance at the weather models of NCMRWF shows a ridge extending over to northwest Rajasthan from the central of a high pressure zone located over and around Sudan. The dynamical model suggests the ridge will extend to cover states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, northern Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, south of Bihar, west Jharkhand and western and central Odisha in next 24 hrs. The ridge will cease to exist over India by Nov 21.
ANTICYCLONE MOMENT
The weather models predict formation of an anticyclone zone over Rajasthan and north Gujarat and parts of Pakistan on and around November 22. The anticyclone will cover more parts of central India in the next 24 hrs, as a consequence cold winds @ 30m/s from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan to gush into India. This weather pattern will prevail till Nov 26.
However, on and around Nov 27, a ridge will again extend over to central India from a high pressure zone over and around Sudan. Strong cold winds at the rate 30m/s from north west (Afghan-Turkmenistan) will still gush into India and will be taking in its sweep the areas like north Uttar Pradesh, north Bihar, West Bengal to reach north Bay of Bengal. The wind then turn along the outer sided of ridge to cover states like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka.
As a consequence many of the states will observe cooler clime in the 3rd week of November.
COLD WAVE ERA
A glance at mode data of IMD and NCMRWF reveals the following observations.
- Minimum temperature in states like Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan, north-west Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and adjoining areas of Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand will see the mercury plummeting to 10-12 deg C from November 19.
- The cold wave will gradually sweep large areas thereafter.
- By Nov 20/21, cold wave to grip districts like Sundargarh, Jharsuguda and Sambalpur. Mercury may dip to 10-12 deg C
- By November 24, half of Odisha will be under the spell of a cold wave.
CAPITAL STATE
Model predictions show the twin cities of Bhubaneswar and Cuttack will be recording mercury at 14 deg C from Nov 23/24 onwards.
TAMIL NADU UNDER RAIN SPELL
With north east Monsoon active , the southern state of Tamil Nadu that is witnessing massive waterloggging due to copious rainfall over the State, seems to have no respite in the coming days.
Weather models suggest formation of a low pressure area near Sri Lanka on and around Nov 26, as a consequence heavy rainfall is very likely over southern Tamil Nadu from Nov 26/27 onwards.
