By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: With only 24 hours left for filing of nominations for the November 20 polls to the 288 seat Maharashtra Assembly, the battlelines are drawn out in key constituencies in the western state of India that has the second highest population after Uttar Pradesh.
The fight in the Baramati assembly constituency, the fiefdom of Pawars, has turned interesting, post the split in Pawar family. The family seat of Pawars turned a seat of keen contest when Ajit Dada Pawar split from Uncle Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party. Infact, nephew Ajit walked away with Uncle’s clock symbol making the political fight a battle for prestige.
MAHARASHTRA POLITICAL SHAKE UP
The Maharashtra political scene turned very fractious. Split right in the middle of the political ideological landscape of the State, the polity that was a two horse race – Congress Vs Shiv Sena – BJP since the 90s, turned a hydra headed fight, though under the two banners of Maha Vikas Aghadi and Mahayuti.
Maharashtra’s popular political stalwart Balasaheb Thackeray’s party Shiv Sena split into two – with Thackeray scion Uddhav Thackeray joining the MVA bandwagon and Eknath Shinde staying one with the BJP.
In the Uncle-Nephew power struggle, Maratha political stalwart Sharad Rao Pawar’s National Congress Party witnessed a vertical split. Nephew Ajit Dada Pawar walked away with Uncle’s official party and symbol. While Sharad Pawar’s alliance with Congress stayed intact, nephew Ajitdada Pawar joined forces with BJP-Shiv Sena.
IDEOLOGICAL RE-ALIGNMENT
The interesting mix-up in politics here is, both Uddhav Thackeray led political faction and Ajit Dada Pawar led factions have an ideological voter base. Maharashtra, thus, witnessed a new political alignment of sleeping with the contrary ideology in the elections 2024. However, the insights from the 2024 Lok Sabha results provide a peep into the re-aligned Maharashtra polity. In the altered scenario, when the State goes to polls for the Assembly on Nov 20, what will happen in Baramati? Will the seat witness a mega upset?
BARAMATI FIGHT TO FINISH?
With a crack in the Pawar family, and the fight of Pawar vs Pawar, will the Uncle’s political weight weighs down on nephew Ajit Dada Pawar?
The nation witnessed the first Pawar Vs Pawar in the Lok Sabha polls 2024, where daughter of Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule, triumphed over nephew Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra Ajitdada Pawar.
As the Baramati Assembly seat will again witness a political fight between the Pawar family, voters this time will crown whom?
BARAMATI VOTE ARITHMETIC
In the high-profile fight between Supriya vs Sunetra in the Lok Sabha polls 2024, of the six seats under the Baramati LS constituency, Sule had a good lead in 5 assembly segments, including Baramati. Sunetra led over Supriya in Khadakwasala only.
In the Maharashtra Elections 2024, Ajitdada Pawar is contesting from the Baramati Assembly Constituency. He filed his nomination on Monday. Grand nephew of Sharad Pawar and nephew of Ajit Pawar, Yugendra Pawar, will be the challenger from Sharad Pawar led NCP, and will file his nomination tomorrow.
In this another familial family fight, who will trump whom? Detailed analysis given below.
- Baramati election has been Ajitdada Pawar’s pocket borough for long.
- He had a command of over 83% vote share in 2019 Assembly polls.
- In 2009 polls, Ajit Pawar lorded over 68% vote share
- In 2014 polls, Ajit had a grip over 65% vote share
- The vote share grip of Ajit Pawar was of the times, when NCP was one family.
- The Shiv Sena-BJP vote share in the Baramati Assembly segment in 2009 stood at 10%
- In 2014, when BJP and Shiva fought the elections separately, BJP secured a vote share of 26.64%
- The vote share of Uddhav led Shiv Sena was a mere 1.8% in 2014
- In 2019, BJP’s vote share in Baramati plummeted to a low of 12.9%
- In 2024 elections, when polls were held post fragmentation and with a new political-ideological realignment, the results from Baramati throw a shocker.
- Sharad Pawar emerged as the emperor in the Pawar Vs Pawar power struggle.
- In Baramati, Pawar family’s home seat, Supriya Sule, daughter of Sharad Pawar polled 1.439 lakh votes.
- Nephew Ajitdada Pawar’s wife Sunetra Pawar could poll 96,560 votes. She trailed behind Sharad Pawar’s daughter by a massive 47,381 votes.
- The seat has 51,245 SC voters
- Muslim voters in the assembly seat counted at 15,042.
- In the Lok Sabha elections, Supriya Sule walked away with the large chunk of SC voters, musilms, besides majority of loyal Pawar caste.
- Sympathy worked in favour of Supriya Sule.
The BOTTOMLINE is, in politics, sympathy factor usually works in favour for once only. If the thumb rule is to be followed, then Ajitdada Pawar will face a normal election sans sympathy. But if the thumb rule crumbles, and sympathy factor remains intact, then Ajit Dada Pawar will be in trouble!
