Bhubaneswar: The quiet summer saffron revolution of BJP in Odisha has been decoded by State Bank of India’s research report released Thursday.
The report says women voters are increasingly playing a role in the tilting the scales in a party’s favour who roll out schemes for women or keeping women in focus as the major benefactor.
The SBI report listed out Mudra Yojana, women employment, toilets for women playing a key role in increasing the turnout of women voters, and the announcement of Subhadra Yojana played the top-up role tilting the balance towards BJP in Odisha.
As per the SBI research study published recently, based on the 2024 poll data released by ECI, shows that the 2024 turnout of women voters in Odisha has been decadal highest.
The study finds that not only Odisha, as many as 8 states have recorded a decadal high turnout of women voters in the recent assembly elections, and incidentally all the states have announced or rolled out women cash transfer schemes - though in every State BJP won.
ECI 2024 REPORT
The ECI data had showed that women voter turnout in Odisha had been a whopping 75.6% in 2024 State Assembly elections. The ECI data shows, overall, nearly 43k more women than male had voted in Odisha in the 2024 polls, as it puts the male voter turnout was 1.250cr vis-à-vis of 1.2543cr female turnout.
The data shows women voters in Odisha at over 1.66 crores (18-plus age group).
SBI ODISHA REPORT
The SBI Research report released on January 9 revealed that women voter turnout in 2024 Assembly elections in Odisha has been highest ever in last two Assembly polls.
The reports estimated the 9.1 lakhs more women have voted in 2024 Assembly election vsi-a-vis 2014 Assembly elections. And the SBI study links the high rise to Subhadra Yojana.
The study maps how PMJDY accounts and MUDRA yojana helped rise in women voter turnout in Odisha between 2014 and 2024 elections.
A look at the table shows the decadal rise of women voters in Odisha has been the lowest among the top 8 states with high turnout.
But the fact needs to be noted that Odisha had women centric schemes like Mamata and Rs 10 lakh insurance for females under BSKY that had resulted in higher turnout of women voters over the years (2014 and 2019), but Subhadra Yojana resulted into a top up with 9 cr more turned to vote in 2024, leading to tilt in the scales, suggest SBI report.
SBI REPORT OBSERVATIONS
- We tested if the women centric schemes has any impact on increase in women voter turnout in general election 2024 as compared to 2019
- States with any women centric scheme launched after 2019 are grouped as 1 (for instance: Assam, Maharashtra, MP, Karnataka etc…), while others as 0 (for instance: Arunachal Pradesh, Goa etc…)
- Using Welch’s t-test methodology (accounting for unequal variances), we are able to reject the null hypothesis at 5% significance level – indicating that
- Increase in mean women voter turnout is significantly higher in states which have focused on women welfare … as compared to those that haven’t
- Further, we can conclude that in states, where one or more women-centric schemes have been launched, average women voter turnout in 19 beneficiary states increased by 7.8 lakh (cumulatively: 1.5 crore) in 2024 as compared to increase of only 2.5 lakh (cumulatively: 0.3 crore) in states where no-such schemes were launched after 2019
- The report than list the major states across the country and impact of women centric schemes on voter turnout between 2014 and 2024.
- We find that a 1% rise in literacy rate leads to a 25% rise in female voter’s turnout ratio implying that out of the 1.8 crores incremental female voters (2024 vs 2019 elections), 45 lakh female voters rise is attributable to a rise in literacy
- Similarly, 36 lakhs incremental female voters ( turnout) can be attributable to employment /Mudra Yojana among others
- The coefficient of house ownership indicates that ~ 20 lakh incremental female voters (turnout) is attributable to House Ownership. (This is also reflected in house ownership under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana with 74% of the sanctioned houses owned by women solely or jointly)
- Sanitation accounts for ~ 21 lakh incremental female voters' turnout in 2024 elections implying the paramount significance of sanitation in shaping the socio-political priorities
- Electricity access and improved drinking water source show positive coefficients on female
SEE THE TABLES BELOW.
