Fresh depression threat for Odisha on Sept 26/27, watch out time for Malkangiri again!

By Sanjeev Kumar Patro

*Existing depression over West Bengal will bring heavy rains in Keonjhar, Mayurbanj districts on Sept 15

*Western Odisha will record heavy rain on September 17

Bhubaneswar: MORE CYCLONE GENESIS IN STORE! A strengthened Madden Jullian Oscillation (MJO) over South China Sea from mid September onwards doesn’t augur well for the coastal states in India. Because, the hotter Bay of Bengal may prove conducive for the disturbances from pacific that would be crossing over to the Andaman sea/east Bay of Bengal. 

The current conditions will aid a fresh cyclonic circulation to take shape over the central and east Bay of Bengal on September 21. And under its influence, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) will develop on and around September 24, close to Myanmar. All model forecasts predict that post its formation, the movement of the LPA will be towards the west.

The Result: Coastal and southern districts in Odisha may have to get ready for some pounding rains on September 25, 26 and 27. Watch out time for Malkangiri again! The surface winds (over land) will be around 30kmph.

CYCLONEGENESIS POSSIBLE?

As per the model forecasts of reputed met agencies like USA NCEP (National Centres For Environmental Prediction), ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast), NCMRWF (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) and IMD (India Meteorological Department) GFS, aided by the favourable conditions in the bay of Bengal, the LPA will intensify into a depression on and around Sept 26, as it closes-in to the Odisha and Andhra Pradesh coasts. 

DEPRESSION DESTINATION

Model forecasts suggest the likely crossing of the depression at the north Andhra Pradesh coasts, while continuing its westward track. The consequence will be Malkangiri, which was recently ravaged by a depression, may take the brunt of heavy rainfall again during September 27-28. 

WIDESPREAD RAIN PREDICTED

The model forecasts of all weather agencies see the depression most likely tracking over the Telengana to reach Maharashtra. And along its route, the system will bring pounding rains to the states of Telengana, Maharashtra and parts of south Gujarat, apart from Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, before merging into the Arabian sea.

HEAVY RAINS TO LASH WESTERN, NORTERN ODISHA

The existing deep depression that is tracking towards Ganegtic West Bengal, after crossing the coasts of Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal, will bring heavy rains to Keonjhar and Mayurbhanj districts on September 15 (Tommorrow). 

Heavy rains in the order of 30 mm per 3hrs predicted by IMD for Keonjhar and Mayurbhanj districts tomorrow (September 15), whereas the western districts ranging from Sundargarh, Jharsuguda, Sambalpur, Deogarh, Bargarh et al will be witnessing heavy rains to the tune of 2.5 cm rainfall on September 17.