Bhubaneswar: The Lok Sabha elections held in May 2024 had indicated the falling graph of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the tribal dominated state of Jharkhand. The party’s popular vote share was sliced by a whopping 6 percent. The seat tally had also dropped to 9 from 12. The difference between popular vote share of BJP and JMM-Cong-RJD in the state has narrowed to 5% in 2024 from over 9% in 2019 lok sabha polls.
The significant pointer here, however, is despite winning 55% vote share in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP has lost the 2019 Assembly elections to JMM-Cong-RJD combine.
2024 RESULTS: A FLASHBACK TO 2019 POLLS
In the 2019 Assembly polls, BJP lost the 2019 assembly polls to JMM-Cong-RJD combine. The BJP-AJSU alliance in 2019 LS polls withered away in the assembly polls. In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP-AJSU alliance grabbed 55% popular votes share. But in 2019 Assembly polls, the parties fought separately and their combined vote share dropped to little over 41%.
The BJP loss in 2019 Assembly polls was attributed to the then Raghubar Das govt’s amendments to two Acts – Chotanagpur Tenancy Act 1908 and Santhal Parganas Tenancy Act – 1949, which led to widespread tribal agitation.
WHAT IS CNT-1908, SPT-1949?
The then BJP govt in Jharkhand issued two ordinances to amend the CNT Act and SPT Act. The purpose of these amendments is to allow the government to acquire land owned by scheduled tribes (ST) for commercial purposes. As of now transfer of land owned by ST community is not permissible under these two laws.
Tribal Communities vehemently protested with the following rationales.
- Amendments to these two laws dilute various protective provisions meant for prevention of land alienation among tribal communities in Jharkhand.
- Amendments to CNT and SPT Act removes restriction on transfer of tribal land and allow transfer of tribal land for commercial purposes.
- Amendments to these tenancy laws will increase land alienation among tribal communities and legalizes illegal land transfer in the past.
2024 POLL RESULTS
A look at the result map of the Jharkhand state on Saturday clearly indicates the seeming tribal grouse against BJP still persisting.
In the region of Santhal Pargana and South Chotanagpur (painted green/blue), JMM and Congress had a virtual sweep. BJP could win big in the north Chotanagpur region and Palamu, where the tribal population had been around 9% and 19 %, respectively.
Moreover, while Palamu shares border with Chattisgarh, UP and Bihar; north Chotanagpur shares border with Bihar. As the voters in the region are majorly non-tribal, the UP and Bihar impact can also be discernible on the election outcome of the two regions.
The two regions where BJP poor show cost it the elections are south Chotanagpur and Santhal Parganas. The demography there has the following salient features.
- In South Chotnagpur region, the tribal population is around 48%.
- In the Santhal Parganas region, the tribal population stands at little over 28% from 46.8% in 1951 census.
- The region has high Muslim population of 22.73% from 9.44% in 1951 census.
- The consolidation of tribal-Muslim votes vetoed BJP power drive in Jharkhand.
- In order to break the consolidation, the BJP has pointed to above census data that showed dip in tribal population in Santhal Pargana since 1951.
VOTE SHARE
- BJP vote share in 2024 down at 33.14% from 33.37% in 2019
- NDA vote share stood at 36.72% from (if Babulal Marandi’s VS of 5.45% and AJSU’s 8.1% added) 46.82% in 2019
- JMM-CONG-RJD vote share 42.44% up from 35.55% in 2019
- JMM vote share increased to 23.44%
- Cong VS increased to 15.56%
SCHEME SHOW
Besides the lingering simmer among tribals over the CNT-1908 and SPT-1949, the following schemes by the Hemant Soren govt had the top-up effect.
- Maiyaa Samman: The Hemant Soren govt launched this direct cash transfer to women just months (August) ahead of election. The scheme envisaged transfer of Rs 1000/month to women aged 18-50 years
- Interestingly, BJP on Oct 1 announced to implement Gogo-Didi Yojana if elected. The scheme promised Rs 2100 per month to women on 11th of every month.
- Sensing danger, the Hemant Soren govt on Oct 14 decided to increase the Maiyaa Sammat amount Rs 2500/month from Dec 2024.
- This step outshone BJP as the Hemant Soren govt promised more amounts then BJP.
Loan waiver
Besides, the Maiyaa scheme, the Hemant Soren govt has announced a farm loan waiver scheme months before election. Under the scheme, the govt has waived loans upto 2 lakh taken by farmers. The scheme benefitted 1.8lakh farmers. The govt deposited Rs 2 lakh amount in the account of farmers.
ELECTRICITY BILLS WAIVER
In August this year, the Hemant Soren govt waived the outstanding electricity bills of the consumers. I addition, the govt had also announced free electricity up to 200 units.
POLITICAL REASON
BJP has sensed the tribal indifference towards the party at the state-level. The move of hoisting a non-tribal as CM in 2019 and the amendments to the two tribal acts had backfired BJP in 2024, too. BJP’s tribal face in Jhrakhand has been Arjun Munda and Babulal Marandi. The popularity of Arjun Munda can be ascertained form the fact that he was defeated in this Lok Sabha poll.
Babulal Marandi, known for his honesty, was in and out of BJP for many years. Realizing the chinks, BJP imported Champai Soren at the last moment. The last moment import didn’t give windfall to BJP. But the strategy may yield result in longer term.
SYMPATHY FACTOR
Above all the factors, there has been a sympathy factor for Hemant Soren in the State, especially among the tribals. The Jharkhand HC’s comment on ED’s charge against Hemant Soren has ensured a sympathy factor for the JMM.
The Ranchi HC has said this in June this year. Single bench Judge JustIce Mukhopadhyay said, “On merits, it is observed that in the numerous registers and revenue records recovered from the premises of Bhanu Pratap Prasad, the name of Soren or his family members did not figure.”
