Bhubaneswar: The Assembly elections in Maharashtra this year is poised for a surprising outcome. The voter enthusiasm in the polling tells all. People have come out in large numbers to choose their government. The Election Commission of India’s latest update puts the voter turnout at a whopping 65.02%.
The state of Maharashtra has seen such heavy polling in the year 1995 Assembly elections when the turnout was a massive 71.1%. The significant fact is the 1995 Assembly elections were held in the backdrop of 1993 Mumbai bomb blasts and Balasaheb Thackeray’s battle cry.
Post the 1995 elections, the turnout in Maharashtra polls averaged between 59% and 63%. In 2019 elections, the turnout had been 61.1 percent.
WHAT THE TURNOUT HINTS?
A study of the poll turnouts over the year shows the following.
- In 2004 when the Congress party stormed back to power, the poll turnout was 63.4%
- In 2014, when BJP for the first time won 122 seats in State assembly elections, the turnout was 63.08%
- In 2009, when Congress govt was re elected, the voter turnout recorded in the State stood at 59.5%
- In 2019, when the bickering ruling parties BJP and Shiv Sena sealed a pact and jointly contested the polls, the turnout was 61.1%
- The higher turnout of over 65% in 2024 assembly poll turnout hints big.
2024 POLL TURNOUT SCAN
An analysis of Maharashtra Assembly elections in 2014 and 2019 shows the following.
- In the 2014, the poll arena has four main contesting parties – BJP, Cong, NCP and Shiv Sena.
- The close contest constituencies in 4-corned contest have been higher at 178.
- Cut to 2019 elections, when the election was bi-partisan (BJP-Shivsena Vs Cong-NCP), the number of closed contested constituencies dropped to 108.
- In the Lok Sabha 2024 election when the contest had been bipolar (NDA vs INDI), the close contested constituencies count were around the same.
- In 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the close contest was witnessed in 16 Lok Sabha constituencies.
- The rise in voter turnout may play a role in determining the winner.
- Gadricholi in Maharashtra had recorded 71.88% turnout in 2024 lok sabha polls
- The same constituency has recorded a turnout of 73.68% in 2024 assembly polls.
- In the 16 closely contested LS constituencies, the voter turnout has recorded a rise of 2-3%
- A close study showed increase in poll turnout may affect the results in as many 9 lok sabha seats or 58 assembly seats.
HIGH POLLING: ANTI OR PRO INCUMBENCY?
In democracy, high polling is seen as anti-incumbency or triggered by some sentiments like Kargil war in 1999, Kashmir Terror attack/Abhinandan episode in 2019 or Mumbai Bomb blast in 1995 or assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984 et al.
The polls to the assembly elections to Maharashtra were held sans any sentimental cloud cover. But the Mukhyamantri Ladki Behn Yojana has been launched just before the elections, and the overwhelming response to the scheme may cast a role in the outcome.
The BOTTOMLINE is the poll turnout rise hints at voter enthusiasm. Past election turnout shows enthusiasm of voters bring regime change in Maharashtra.
- 1995 – 71.6% from 62.6% in 1990 (regime change happened)
- 2014 – 63% from 59% in 2009 (regime change happened)
- 2024 – 65% from 61% in 2019
- However, in 2009 despite mega loan waiver scheme for farmers in 2008, the turnout dropped.
- In 2024, the Mukhyamantri Ladki Behn Yojana has been a more mega scheme for voters than the farm loan waiver, this could have a role in vote percentage rise.
- In democracy, if elections were held in a short span of time after rolling out popular schemes then it play in role in higher turnout.
- EVIDENCE: In Odisha Rs 2/kilo rice scheme introduced for the first time in 2008, elections were held in April 2009 and the ruling party (BJD) won with bigger numbers in an election with a higher turnout. The recent Haryana election results also support this evidence.
