Arun Joshi
With BJP’s splendid victory in three more states in Hindi heartland, the party has an opportunity to go in for simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir to blunt all the criticism that it faces for not holding elections for more than five years. This is a grand opportunity for the Modi government to deliver on its own promises and the constitutional obligations.
The BJP’s splendid victory in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh against the backdrop of many observers predicting less than 3-0 victory, must have served as a big morale booster for the saffron party across the country. And the picture of its victory is incomplete unless it holds elections in J&K irrespective of the results that it may throw in its favour or not.
The victory in the three states, where its stakes were quite high, has helped countrymen to view BJP and Modi’s leadership in brighter light. It is seen the trust that Modi’s leadership has evoked in the country, because of its policies and promises, or for that matter the simple and unconditional love many in the country have for the party. This has firmed up the perception that Modi will strike a hat-trick in 2024 polls, perhaps with larger majority than that of 2019.
Kashmir is not an exception; it too has read this message. This will have its own impact, and it was visible the way BJP celebrated the victory in the Valley, where such things were not possible nor imaginable few years ago. J&K is also aware that its five out of 545 seats in Lok Sabha will have no bearing on the national politics, so the real focus is on the Assembly polls.
The simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha polls in J&K offer a clear advantage to the BJP on the controversial Article 370, irrespective of the fact the verdict that Supreme Court may deliver in coming weeks. Its overall performance across the country, which the current political landscape promises to be pretty good for the party, will drown even an adverse result in the Assembly polls. The Assembly polls, before or after Lok Sabha elections will have different connotations and draw greater international attention. Any election in J&K is always analyzed by the international community and media. It may not impact India as much but the fact remains that it does reflect on the image of the country, which is “mother of democracy.” Since this time the Assembly polls will be held after a long gap – the last Assembly polls were held in November-December 2014 – these will be of greater importance and attention. And it will attract additional spotlight as these polls will be held first time after the abrogation of Article 370, which has become a litmus test for the BJP and non-BJP parties to test their versions on this provision.
For BJP , the Assembly elections in J&K , is a national necessity to cement the view that everything has changed for better in the Union Territory , particularly the Valley .The intrinsic link that it has promoted in narrative that with the abolition of the Article 370 , it has given a new life to the zero-tolerance of terrorism intensified anti-terrorism operations , and that also has delivered peace dividends – normal life after a gap of many, many years , to be precise after 30 years or so of the turmoil that had left normalcy in tatters- and the windfall of tourism .The delay in elections has put a question mark over all these claims and ground realities . The question is if the ground realities have shifted from troubles to peace, why the democratic exercise has been kept on hold for so long. Primarily, had the Assembly been allowed to live its normal life of six years (J&K Assembly had six years of life unlike five years in other states/UTs), the elections should have been held in March 2021. The date of elections was determined six years from the day of formation of the government. Since the life of that Assembly was cut short on November 21, 2018, the elections should have been held within next six months. That did not happen, though Lok Sabha polls, were held on time. In practical terms, more than five years have passed since the dissolution of Assembly.
In less than a week after the abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019, Prime Minister, in his address to the nation had promised that the elections would be held soon in J&K, and this message was reiterated by him in his Independence- Day on August 15 that year. Thereafter, delimitation process has been completed – the number of assembly seats has been increased, and summary roll revision has been conducted twice, and a third one is in progress.
Against this backdrop, BJP has got an opportunity to deliver on its promise to hold polls in J&K, viewed in the light of BJP’s victory in three major states, this is a never-before opportunity for the Central government to convince the Election Commission that this is the right time for Assembly polls in J&K.
(Arun Joshi is author of “Eyewitness Kashmir; Teetering on Nuclear War and senior journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir, writes on South Asian affairs)
Disclaimer: This is the personal opinion of the author. The views expressed in this write-up have nothing to do with www.prameyanews.com.
