Bhubaneswar: Odisha may see a prolonged heat wave conditions. The State is likely to be under the spell of heat wave conditions during the first week of April.
A glance at the model predictions show all likelihood of the heat wave lingering over Odisha till April 8.
The wind pattern at the lower atmosphere hints at subsidence of air over the landmass of the State resulting in hotter climate even during the first week of April.
As a consequence, as many as 11 districts in the State will be sizzling at a high temperature of over 40 deg C in the first week of April.
Even as a low is predicted to form over Maharashtra- Karnataka during the first days of April first week, the low induced rainfall may take place in some places in Maharashtra, Karnataka and MP, but it will little relief to Odisha.
The East India will keep seeing the mercury rising. Many places in Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal will keep recording higher day time temperature of over 40 deg C.
ODISHA DISTRICTS UNDER HEAT SWEEP
Owing to the lower atmospheric wind movement leading to subsidence of air over the State, the following districts will witness unrelenting heat wave till April 8. If model predictions are to believed Boudh, Balangir and Subarnapur will be going to be heat capital of the State on many days in the first week of April.
The other districts predicted to record 40 deg C or more from April 1 -8 are given below
- Nuapada
- Bargarh
- Jharsuguda
- Sundargarh, including steel city Rourkela
- Deogarh
- Angul
- Parts of Keonjhar adjacent to Sundargarh
ODISHA COASTAL REGION WEATHER
Even as the western and central parts of the State would be recording heat wave conditions due to air subsidence over the region, the coastal regions in the State are predicted to witness hot and humid conditions, but heat wave warning seems unlikely.
The reason: Coastal regions in the State are not receiving wind from the dry regions (west or northwesterly) during the first week of April. The region is predicted to receive easterlies from the Bay of Bengal.
For which, the maximum day time temperature in interior coastal districts like Khordha, including Bhubaneswar, and Cuttack are predicted to record the mercury hovering in the range of 36-38 deg C in the first week of April.
CYCLONE GENESIS IN BAY OF BENGAL
The model predictions show likely cyclone genesis in Bay of Bengal in the first week of April.
With easterlies prevailing over the Bay of Bengal, there seems less chance in formation of low pressure area, however, the dynamic weather takes a twist to make this possible.
According to the North Carolina Institute of Climate Studies forecast, the presence of atmospheric Rossby waves over pacific and Andaman sea has rolled a red carpet for formation of a low pressure area over south Bay of Bengal around April 6.
The IMD GFS model also sees a low forming in Bay of Bengal around April 6.
But, another ace Indian model NCUM didn’t predict any cyclone genesis during the period of April 6- 9.
However, both the reputed models of NCEP-GFS and ECMWF have predicted probability of cyclone genesis over south Bay of Bengal between April 6 and April 9. (see the main image)
When the ECMWF has hoisted an over 30% probability, the NCEP GFS model see it developing into a cyclone over the days.
The North Carolina Institute of Climate Studies predict favourable condition for cyclone genesis in the Bay of Bengal. It hints at active MJO and Rossby waves at work in the Bay of Bengal.
