Bhubaneswar: A low pressure area has formed over the south Bay of Bengal Monday morning. This is the first low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal in pre-Monsoon season this year.
The sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal has been over 29 deg C. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential in the south Bay of Bengal is predicted to hover between 90 – 120 kj/cm2
A glance at the above numbers shows the conditions are conducive for the sustenance of the low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal.
The moot point here is what next. Will the low pressure area undergo cyclone genesis over the bay?
WHAT NEXT?
Without commenting on its intensification, the IMD has predicted that the system after initial southwest drift will be charting north direction by April 9-10.
The atmospheric model of Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) predicts the LPA system veering towards Odisha coast by April 10. The model further predicts that the LPA will then take a north east curve towards Myanmar.
The ECMWF model forecast has also predicted the movement of the low pressure area on the lines of INCOIS.
WILL CYCLONE GENESIS TAKE PLACE?
Even as the Bay of Bengal has all the conducive conditions for the cyclone genesis, the atmosphere is not playing in tandem with the bay. The moisture content over Bay of Bengal is also very supportive for convective activities.
A glance at the North Carolina Institute of Climate Studies Combine Forecast system also shows negative meridonial wind anomalies of the order of 5m/s over south Bay of Bengal, and the prediction shows the wind of 1-3m/s prevailing over north west, central and north Bay of Bengal in the lower atmopshere, which is favourable for continuing the cyclonic circulation of air.
The CFS also shows positive meridonial wind anomalies in the upper atmosphere, which has the potential to impact a decrease in the present high vertical wind shear to aid cyclone genesis.
The zonal wind anomalies in the upper atmosphere is mildly positive, which is also an aiding factor for cyclone genesis
Despite bits of conducive conditions in atmosphere, the CFS predicts prevalence of positive zonal wind shear anomalies of over 6-14m/s. The positive zonal wind shear will be going to play a roadblock in intensification of the system till April 12.
BOTTOMLINE: For the above factor, the INCOIS atmospheric model and ECMWF didn’t see the system intensifying into a depression. With the barometric pressure not going to drop sharp, the system seems unlikely to undergo cyclone genesis.
