Skymet expects a 'Normal' Monsoon Season
Private forecaster Skymet Weather predicts a 'normal' monsoon for India this year, providing a big relief for the agriculture sector.
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The Numbers and what it means
Skymet anticipates nationwide monsoon rainfall to be around 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA, representing the historical average rainfall over the four-month season, stands at 868.6 mm. Skymet defines 'normal' rainfall as anything falling between 96% and 104% of this average, placing their forecast comfortably within this range (with a potential error margin of +/- 5%). This suggests a broadly average rainfall pattern across the country, which is vital for agriculture.
Key Influencers: ENSO and IOD
According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director at Skymet, several key atmospheric conditions appear favourable. The La Niña conditions observed earlier were weak and are fading. Crucially, the development of El Niño – one phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often linked to suppressed monsoon rainfall – is ruled out for this season. Instead, the overall ENSO conditions are expected to be 'neutral'.
"The remnants of La Niña and ENSO-neutral will shield the monsoon from any negative outcome," Singh stated.
Furthermore, another significant factor, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is currently neutral but is expected to turn positive before the monsoon fully sets in. Skymet notes that historically, a combination of ENSO-neutral conditions and a positive IOD tends to support healthier monsoon patterns. "ENSO and IOD are expected to remain in sync and are likely to steer the monsoon within safe margins," the agency added.
Seasonal Progression and Regional Variations
The overall outlook is positive. However, Skymet suggests the monsoon might start slowly due to transitioning atmospheric conditions. Rainfall could increase during the second half of the season. July and August, the key months for crop sowing, may see more activity.
Geographically, the forecast anticipates good rainfall across Western and South India. Key agricultural states like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are expected to receive adequate moisture. Regions along the Western Ghats, including Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Goa, might get excess rainfall. However, the forecast indicates potentially below-normal rainfall for parts of Northeast India and the hilly northern states.
Probability Check
Breaking down the possibilities, Skymet estimates the highest probability (40%) to a 'Normal' monsoon (96-104% of LPA). There's also a significant 30% chance of 'Above Normal' rainfall (105-110% of LPA). Conversely, the chances of 'Below Normal' (90-95% of LPA) are estimated at 15%, and the probability of 'Drought' (less than 90% of LPA) is low at 5%. This points towards a generally favourable season overall.
This initial forecast from Skymet provides an early indication for farmers and policymakers. With over half of India's farmland relying directly on monsoon rains and a normal monsoon is critical. All eyes will now be on the official forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), and has to see if it aligns with Skymet's forecast report.
